Will Trump Be the First President in 50 Years to Leave Office with a Lower Stock Market?

Will Trump Be the First President in 50 Years to Leave Office with a Lower Stock Market?

Here’s something worth thinking about: almost no U.S. president in the last 50 years has left office with the stock market lower than when they entered. But could Donald Trump break that trend?

Based on my calculations, Trump could very well be the first president since George Bush—and only the third in the last five decades—to have a negative stock market performance by the time he leaves office.

So what happens next? Well, there are two possibilities:

Option 1: Trump could somehow steer the economy toward unprecedented prosperity, earning a spot in history as a genius. MAGA fans are hoping for this, but I think it’s a long shot.

Option 2: The more likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Trump’s economic policies—like isolationism and tariffs on friendly neighbors—will backfire, and we could see a stock market downturn during his second term.

While presidents often get a pass on market swings, his trade policies and stance on foreign relations might leave the market significantly lower. If that happens, it will be hard to argue that it's not directly related to his decisions.

Keep an eye on it. The next few years could prove a historic shift in how presidents influence the economy—especially Trump’s influence on the stock market.